Question

Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?

Resolved :No50%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters132

Community Prediction50% (38% - 64%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-24.9

Community Peer Score

36.3

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 15, 2016

Closes:

Jun 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Pandemic Series (2018)

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Tokyo subway sarin attack

Aleph (Japanese cult)

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

Will there be another pandemic after covid-19 and are we prepared?

New Scientist•Jan 27, 2025

The Time To Take This Seriously Was Years Ago

PJ Media•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

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