Question

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction55%

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50%

community: 55%

median 55.0%mean 54.9%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

How A.I. Is Disrupting Pharma: The High-Stakes Race to Revolutionize Drug Discovery

Observer (NY)•Nov 12, 2024

Ecolectro stuffs hydrogen production into shipping containers to cut costs

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035? → Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

How A.I. Is Disrupting Pharma: The High-Stakes Race to Revolutionize Drug Discovery

Observer (NY)•Nov 12, 2024

Ecolectro stuffs hydrogen production into shipping containers to cut costs

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035? → Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

20%