Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

conditional

condition

High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?

3 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

60%

Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

20%

no comments0

Make a Prediction

High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?	Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 60%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2044

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

Founded by DeepMind alumnus, Latent Labs launches with $50M to make biology programmable

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

Enzymes are the engines of life − machine learning tools could help scientists design new ones to tackle disease and climate change

The Conversation•Feb 14, 2025

How DeepSeek's new AI models are impacting the profits of global companies

CNBC•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

54.9%

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2044

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

Founded by DeepMind alumnus, Latent Labs launches with $50M to make biology programmable

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

Enzymes are the engines of life − machine learning tools could help scientists design new ones to tackle disease and climate change

The Conversation•Feb 14, 2025

How DeepSeek's new AI models are impacting the profits of global companies

CNBC•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

54.9%

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

20%