0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

conditional

condition

Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

74%

0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

18%

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Make a Prediction

Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?	0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 74%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2040

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Technology

Will There Be Enough Power to Remove Carbon From the Sky?

New York Times•Feb 18, 2025

UK government gives the go-ahead to store 100 MILLION tonnes of CO2 under the North Sea - but experts raise fears the greenhouse gas could leak and taint water supplies

Daily Mail•Feb 19, 2025

Clever chemistry can make rocks absorb CO2 much more quickly

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

When will direct air carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?

2039-06-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2040

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Technology

Will There Be Enough Power to Remove Carbon From the Sky?

New York Times•Feb 18, 2025

UK government gives the go-ahead to store 100 MILLION tonnes of CO2 under the North Sea - but experts raise fears the greenhouse gas could leak and taint water supplies

Daily Mail•Feb 19, 2025

Clever chemistry can make rocks absorb CO2 much more quickly

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

When will direct air carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?

2039-06-01