Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?

conditional

condition

Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?

65%

Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?

42%

no comments0

Make a Prediction

Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?	Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 65%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2051

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Health & Pandemics

Trump's radical $500billion plan to end cancer with a VACCINE

Daily Mail•Jan 23, 2025

AI Tool to Slash Pharma Development Costs by Predicting Drug Trial Outcomes

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Believes A.I. Could Double Human Lifespans in 5 Years

Observer (NY)•Jan 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50%

Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?

47.5%

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2051

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Health & Pandemics

Trump's radical $500billion plan to end cancer with a VACCINE

Daily Mail•Jan 23, 2025

AI Tool to Slash Pharma Development Costs by Predicting Drug Trial Outcomes

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Believes A.I. Could Double Human Lifespans in 5 Years

Observer (NY)•Jan 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50%

Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?

47.5%

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?

80%