Question

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters3

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weight:

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community

<0.3

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

47.6%

<0.3

0.3567

0.535

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Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Still Flawed and Lacking Safeguards, UN Cybercrime Treaty Goes Before the UN General Assembly, then States for Adoption

Electronic Frontier Foundation•Dec 17, 2024

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Pakistan and Bahamas join push for global pact to phase out fossil fuels

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Still Flawed and Lacking Safeguards, UN Cybercrime Treaty Goes Before the UN General Assembly, then States for Adoption

Electronic Frontier Foundation•Dec 17, 2024

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Pakistan and Bahamas join push for global pact to phase out fossil fuels

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Make a Prediction

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Comments

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?