Question

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters3

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community

<0.3

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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47.6%

<0.3

0.3567

0.535

Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Oct 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control in the Middle East

OpEdNews•Jan 20, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Russia's Weapons May Have Surpassed Nuclear Arms Treaty, US Congress Warned

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Oct 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control in the Middle East

OpEdNews•Jan 20, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Russia's Weapons May Have Surpassed Nuclear Arms Treaty, US Congress Warned

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%