Question

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters2

Community Prediction5.2e-1

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My Prediction

community

<3e-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

6.1%

4.403e-1

5.2e-1

5.959e-1

Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

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Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2024 Nobel Peace Prize goes to Japanese organization Nihon Hidankyo for efforts against nuclear weapons

CBS•Oct 11, 2024

Japanese atomic bomb survivor group Nihon Hidankyo wins 2024 Nobel Peace Prize

New York Post•Oct 11, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%