Question

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters3

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<0.3

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

47.6%

<0.3

0.3567

0.535

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Authors:

Ibozz91

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Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Japanese atomic bomb survivors say Nobel Peace Prize gives fresh impetus to disarmament push

Associated Press•Dec 24, 2024

Iran Could Have a Nuclear Weapon in 'Days': Former Israeli Ambassador to US

Newsweek•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

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