Question

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction0.357 (0.3 - 0.535)

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weight:

	<0.3	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	47.6%	<0.3	0.3567	0.535
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.3	47.6%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	<0.3	—
median	0.3567	—
upper 75%	0.535	—

Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Oct 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan won’t join UN meeting on nuclear weapons ban, citing support for US deterrence

Associated Press•Mar 3, 2025

Nuclear Abolition is Focus of UN Meetings in New York

CounterPunch•Mar 6, 2025

REVEALED: The five countries quietly stockpiling nukes amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

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Authors:

Ibozz91

Opened:

Oct 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan won’t join UN meeting on nuclear weapons ban, citing support for US deterrence

Associated Press•Mar 3, 2025

Nuclear Abolition is Focus of UN Meetings in New York

CounterPunch•Mar 6, 2025

REVEALED: The five countries quietly stockpiling nukes amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%