🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?

Resolved :3234.6
2
12
Total Forecasters51
Community Prediction34.6 (32.1 - 39.7)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<5
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>65
...
...
...
...
...
0.1%
32.09
34.56
39.71
0.4%

What was the final result?32

Community Baseline Score
63.8
Community Peer Score
28.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeineRyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard

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