Question

Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?

Resolved :Yes63%

27 comments27

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction63% (56% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

33.7

Community Peer Score

14.4

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2019 Leaderboard

List of Ebola outbreaks

Democratic Republic of the Congo

World Health Organization

‘Several hundred’ could be dead after Cyclone Chido hits France’s Mayotte

Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

Cyclone Chido causes hundreds of deaths on Mayotte islands in Indian Ocean, officials say

PBS NewsHour•Dec 16, 2024

Mysterious disease in DRC is severe malaria, health authorities say

Al Jazeera•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments