πŸ”­ The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global β€” Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm β€” and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

Resolved :No0.5%
4
20
Total Forecasters185
Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
98.5
Community Peer Score
4.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeinelbiii
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
πŸ† Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup πŸ†
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard

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