Question

Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit?

Resolved :Yes30%

14 comments14

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction30% (20% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-55.9

Community Peer Score

25.0

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Northern Ireland votes to continue Brexit arrangements for another four years

Guardian•Dec 11, 2024

Revealed: British Pollster Who Nailed the US Election Explains How Her Team Did It

Townhall•Dec 13, 2024

Nigel Farage Leads Betting Odds to Become Next British Prime Minister

Breitbart•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

52.3%

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Northern Ireland votes to continue Brexit arrangements for another four years

Guardian•Dec 11, 2024

Revealed: British Pollster Who Nailed the US Election Explains How Her Team Did It

Townhall•Dec 13, 2024

Nigel Farage Leads Betting Odds to Become Next British Prime Minister

Breitbart•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

52.3%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit?

Make a Prediction

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

Comments

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?