Question

Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :Ambiguous15%

266 comments266

Total Forecasters325

Community Prediction15% (4% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

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Geopolitics

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Israel seeks to remain in Lebanon past Sunday withdrawal deadline

CNN•Jan 24, 2025

Netanyahu suggests Israel might not complete its withdrawal from Lebanon by a ceasefire deadline

Associated Press•Jan 24, 2025

As Israel Flouts Lebanon Ceasefire, DM Says Deal May Be Scrapped Entirely

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel seeks to remain in Lebanon past Sunday withdrawal deadline

CNN•Jan 24, 2025

Netanyahu suggests Israel might not complete its withdrawal from Lebanon by a ceasefire deadline

Associated Press•Jan 24, 2025

As Israel Flouts Lebanon Ceasefire, DM Says Deal May Be Scrapped Entirely

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch