Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

conditional
condition

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

3 forecasters
if yes
if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2038-10-25

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2043-09-22
2
1

Make a Prediction

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2019-12-31
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-12-31
...
...
...
...
...
1.8%
2030-05-07 01:27
2038-10-25 15:44
2049-02-15 21:54
1.4%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
BrunoParga
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Environment & Climate
Economy & Business
2024-2025 Leaderboard

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