Question

Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: what will the Metaculus community predict about Brexit?

Resolved :Ambiguous35%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction35% (25% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 19, 2016

Closes:

Jun 23, 2016

Resolves:

Aug 23, 2016

The UK is haunted by Johnson’s ‘botched Brexit deal’ and Labour’s plans for change don’t go far enough

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

‘I sense Brussels is ready to be bold and ambitious’: hope mixes with anger on Brexit’s fifth anniversary

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

The growing wealth gap between Britain and the US

Spectator (UK)•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

53%

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 19, 2016

Closes:

Jun 23, 2016

Resolves:

Aug 23, 2016

The UK is haunted by Johnson’s ‘botched Brexit deal’ and Labour’s plans for change don’t go far enough

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

‘I sense Brussels is ready to be bold and ambitious’: hope mixes with anger on Brexit’s fifth anniversary

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

The growing wealth gap between Britain and the US

Spectator (UK)•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

53%