Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters159

Community Prediction32%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 32%

median 32.0%mean 35.8%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

‘It is a pandemic’: UK’s envoy on superbugs says scale of threat underestimated

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

Bird Flu Outbreak: Do Human Cases Mean Future Lockdowns?

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

Comments

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

‘It is a pandemic’: UK’s envoy on superbugs says scale of threat underestimated

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

Bird Flu Outbreak: Do Human Cases Mean Future Lockdowns?

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01