Question

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline

Resolved :Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

41.3

Community Peer Score

-2.5

median 66.0%mean 65.6%

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

Politics

United States

Gun violence in the United States

Federal Bureau of Investigation

What will the US homicide rate per 100,000 be in the following years?

5.66

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US Homicide Rate? (2028)

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

Politics

United States

Gun violence in the United States

Federal Bureau of Investigation

US Overdose Deaths Down by 14%: CDC

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Overdose deaths down in U.S., providing experts hope for ongoing decline

PBS NewsHour•Nov 14, 2024

US overdose deaths continue downward trend, giving experts hope

Al Jazeera•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the US homicide rate per 100,000 be in the following years?

5.66

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US Homicide Rate? (2028)

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%