Question

Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction5 (1.4 - 9.3)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>10
community	1.395	5	9.301	18.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1.395	—
median	5	—
upper 75%	9.301	—
Upper bound
>10	18.1%	—

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

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What will be the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?

5.96

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.52

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological plus digital humans)?

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Comments

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Artificial Intelligence

How to Break the Spell of AI's Magical Thinking: Lessons From Rodney Brooks

Newsweek•Feb 25, 2025

OpenAI's Progress in Coding Accelerates Projections of Economic Upheaval

Newsweek•Feb 26, 2025

50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?

5.96

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.52

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological plus digital humans)?

27k