Question

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

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Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction73.2

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>250

...

39.73

73.17

103.2

1.2%

Authors:

will_aldred

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Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

103

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?

4.67

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

WHO warns of measles resurgence as cases exceed 10 million in 2023

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

‘It is a pandemic’: UK’s envoy on superbugs says scale of threat underestimated

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

'Unacceptable' Measles Death Toll—Map Shows Where Cases Are Surging

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

103

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?

4.67