Question

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Resolved :Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 70.0%mean 70.5%

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

Earth is likely to have its hottest year on record – again

Independent•Oct 23, 2024

World on pace for significantly more warming without immediate climate action, report warns

Associated Press•Oct 25, 2024

Global warming will be TWICE as bad as predicted: Earth is on track for 'catastrophic' 3.1°C of warming this century, the UN warns

Daily Mail•Oct 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25