Question

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Resolved :Yes70%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction70% (64% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

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Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

2019 Leaderboard

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

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•Dec 17, 2024

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Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

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Wired•Dec 18, 2024

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Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

2019 Leaderboard

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

Climate inaction puts lives on the line: WMO

•Dec 17, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Make a Prediction

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Comments

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?