Question

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Resolved :Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 70.0%mean 70.5%

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2019 Series

El Niño

NASA

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña

Paris

2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say

USA Today•Nov 11, 2024

2024 set to be hottest year on record as temperatures breach 1.5C threshold

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

The world has ALREADY exceeded the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, study warns - and scientists say time is running out to curb climate change

Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17