Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the California Drought end in 2017?

Resolved :Yes43%
6
10
Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction43% (20% - 69%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 43%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-142.1
Community Peer Score
32.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Greg
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Environment & Climate
2016-2017 Leaderboard
2011–2017 California drought
California
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
La Niña

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