Question

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

Resolved :No

28 comments28

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction18%

Make a Prediction

community: 18%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

63.6

Community Peer Score

23.9

median 18.0%mean 22.5%

Authors:

Pshyeah

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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

46%

How many non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030?

474k

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

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Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Tesla Is Ready to Roll Out Its Robotaxis

Wired•Oct 9, 2024

Tesla to Unveil Long-Awaited Robotaxi

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

Tesla fans electrified over robotaxi event that could unveil Elon Musk's long-promised humanoid robot

Daily Mail•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

46%

How many non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030?

474k