US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?

conditional

condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Closed

28 forecasters

if yes

if no

US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?

57%

US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?

75%

1 comment1

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2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 57%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2024 Electoral Consequences

Geopolitics

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Trump in power beyond 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2024 Electoral Consequences

Geopolitics

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch