Question

When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction2026-07

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-12

...

2024-07

2026-07

2029-05

16.0%

Authors:

isinlor

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer vision

Deep learning

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Google Search

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2026-02

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

2025-10

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer vision

Deep learning

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Google Search

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What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2026-02

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

2025-10

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When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?

Make a Prediction

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

Comments

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?