Question

When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction2026-08-25 (2024-07-29 - 2029-07-07)

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lower 25%

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upper 75%

>2030-12-29

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2024-07-29 20:06

2026-08-25 03:05

2029-07-07 18:13

16.7%

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Authors:

isinlor

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AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Time•Dec 13, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2025-07-13

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

2025-12-16

Comments

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Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2025-07-13

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

2025-12-16

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When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?

Make a Prediction

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

Comments

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?