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By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

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Community Prediction2028-02

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upper 75%

>2199-12

...

2026-02

2028-02

2033-07

0.1%

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DavidMathers

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David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2026-02

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

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Authors:

DavidMathers

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

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When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

2026-02

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

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By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

Comments

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?