Question

Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?

Resolved :No10%

40 comments40

Total Forecasters104

Community Prediction10% (7% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.7

Community Peer Score

19.3

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Mar 28, 2019

Closes:

Apr 9, 2019

Resolves:

Apr 12, 2019

UK invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on EU

Brexit withdrawal agreement

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Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

Britain’s government lacks a clear Europe policy

Economist•Jan 27, 2025

5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

Associated Press•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?

2038-06-17

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