Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?

Resolved :No20%
3
16
Total Forecasters50
Community Prediction20% (18% - 32%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
67.8
Community Peer Score
6.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jotto
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economy & Business
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Li Keqiang
Peking University
Purchasing Managers' Index
Brookings Institution
China
Gross domestic product
Historical GDP of China

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