Question

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction7% (3% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Feb 16, 2025

Experts are anxious that bird flu could become airborne — and jump-start another pandemic

Independent•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Feb 16, 2025

Experts are anxious that bird flu could become airborne — and jump-start another pandemic

Independent•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

15%