Question

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

(2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

‘I still believe my Covid lab theory was the right one – and it could happen again’

Independent•Mar 23, 2025

We’ve entered a forever war with bird flu

Verge•Mar 20, 2025

How vulnerable might humans be to bird flu? Scientists see hope in existing immunity

NPR Online News•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

‘I still believe my Covid lab theory was the right one – and it could happen again’

Independent•Mar 23, 2025

We’ve entered a forever war with bird flu

Verge•Mar 20, 2025

How vulnerable might humans be to bird flu? Scientists see hope in existing immunity

NPR Online News•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%