Question

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 12.2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

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Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Health & Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

There Is a Solution to AI’s Existential Risk Problem

Time•Nov 15, 2024

Bird Flu Outbreak: Do Human Cases Mean Future Lockdowns?

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%