🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?

-2
9
10 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 10

Make a Prediction

Community Prediction for Harris winning the electionMe
ResolvedOver 50% (>50%)
88.1%
46%-50%, inclusive (≥46% and ≤50%)
9.9%
Under 46% (>46%)
2%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Over 50% (>50%)

Community Baseline Score
37.0
Community Peer Score
22.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
gabrielalberton
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Metaculus
Politics
2024 Leaderboard

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