Question

Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

66 comments66

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

19.9

Community Peer Score

7.3

median 1.0%mean 1.4%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

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Artificial Intelligence

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

30%

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

14%