Question

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-3

4 comments4

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction65%

Make a Prediction

community: 65%

median 65.0%mean 66.0%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

75%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

With Newsom’s Veto, Big Tech Beats Democracy

Jacobin•Oct 1, 2024

Silicon Valley has a plan to save humanity: Just flip on the nuclear reactors

CNN•Oct 1, 2024

Top AI Labs Have 'Very Weak' Risk Management, Study Says

Time•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

75%

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If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Comments

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?