Question

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-3

4 comments4

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction65% (60% - 89%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

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Wired•Dec 18, 2024

This Year’s Nobel Prizes Are a Warning about AI

Scientific American•Dec 21, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

This Year’s Nobel Prizes Are a Warning about AI

Scientific American•Dec 21, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Comments

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?