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Question

Question

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

5

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction70%

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50%

community: 70%

median 70.0%mean 72.8%

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

AI could cause ‘social ruptures’ between people who disagree on its sentience

Guardian•Nov 18, 2024

War and Peace in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Foreign Affairs•Nov 18, 2024

A Chinese lab has released a ‘reasoning’ AI model to rival OpenAI’s o1

TechCrunch•Nov 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

AI could cause ‘social ruptures’ between people who disagree on its sentience

Guardian•Nov 18, 2024

War and Peace in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Foreign Affairs•Nov 18, 2024

A Chinese lab has released a ‘reasoning’ AI model to rival OpenAI’s o1

TechCrunch•Nov 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?