Question

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Community Peer Score

7.8

median 2.0%mean 3.8%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine pedroacosta

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Warning as another case of ultra-deadly mpox strain hits Britain - patient is receiving specialist treatment in London hospital

Daily Mail•Nov 7, 2024

UK identifies 4 cases of new mpox variant, the first cluster outside Africa

Associated Press•Nov 7, 2024

4 Cases of New Mpox Variant Detected in UK, First Cluster Outside Africa

Newsweek•Nov 7, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

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