Question

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction1.09

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My Prediction

community

<0.1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

5.7%

0.4985

1.087

2.507

1.7%

Authors:

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Health & Pandemics

United States’ first known case of more severe strain of mpox confirmed in California

CNN•Nov 17, 2024

U.S. confirms first case of more aggressive strain of mpox

NBC•Nov 17, 2024

First known US case of person infected with new mpox strain reported

Guardian•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.53

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