Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.5%
7
15
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
78.7
Community Peer Score
41.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
christian.q.chung
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard

Comments

? comments