🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?

14
13
111 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 111

Make a Prediction

Location(s) of Ukrainian-Held Russian Territory >5mi inside Russian BorderMe
ResolvedKursk Oblast and in no other oblasts
99.7%
Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast
0.1%
Not Kursk Oblast, but at least 1 other oblast
0.1%
No Ukrainian-held Russian territory
0.1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Kursk Oblast and in no other oblasts

Community Baseline Score
91.4
Community Peer Score
31.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
lbiii
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard

Comments

? comments