Question

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

2 comments2

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 5

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google / DeepMind

Other

xAI

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
Anthropic	57%

OpenAI	32%

Google / DeepMind	2%

Other	1%

xAI	0.9%

Meta	0.6%

Microsoft	0.6%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

JonathanMann

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Abstraction — Curated by Jonathan Mann

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2027-11

Comments

? comments

Authors:

JonathanMann

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Abstraction — Curated by Jonathan Mann

Artificial Intelligence

Top AI Labs Have 'Very Weak' Risk Management, Study Says

Time•Oct 2, 2024

OpenAI raises $6.6B and is now valued at $157B

TechCrunch•Oct 3, 2024

Despite $157 Billion Valuation, Why OpenAI Won’t Change The World

Forbes•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2027-11

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus