Question

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

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Total Forecasters2

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

community: 22%

median 22.0%mean 22.0%

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

David Mathers' Community

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

31%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

95%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

David Mathers' Community

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

31%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

95%

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Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?