Group

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

14 comments14

19 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

United Kingdom

United States

Zambia

Angola

India

Germany

Make a Prediction

Country		My Prediction		Me
United Kingdom	yes

United States	yes

Zambia	yes

Angola	50%

India	yes

Germany	yes

Brazil	41%

France	37%

Mexico	30%

Bangladesh	30%

Indonesia	28%

Pakistan	24%

China	22%

Russia	10%

Japan	10%

Resolved Oct 30, 2024

Community Baseline Score

-7.8

Community Peer Score

4.0

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

22.3k

Comments

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

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