Question

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction2024-11

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2025-01

...

2024-10

2024-11

2024-12

9.1%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-03

MetaculusM

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When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?