Question

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction2025-01-01 (2024-12-30 - 2025-01-01)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2025-01-01

...

2024-12-30 18:36

>2025-01-01 00:00

72.5%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI teases new reasoning model—but don’t expect to try it soon

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-05-21

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI teases new reasoning model—but don’t expect to try it soon

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-05-21

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?