Question

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :No69.4%

47 comments47

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction69.4% (40% - 76.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 69.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Beer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Anthropic’s 3.5 Haiku model comes to Claude users

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

2025-01-01

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Anthropic’s 3.5 Haiku model comes to Claude users

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

2025-01-01

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?

Make a Prediction

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?