Question

Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction60% (50% - 68%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

Jun 14, 2019

Closed:

Dec 15, 2019

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 15, 2026

Transatlantic crossing

Uber teams up with Waymo to start selling driverless rides in Austin, Texas

Associated Press•Mar 4, 2025

Driverless Uber rides now challenging Elon Musk’s Tesla in its backyard

CNN•Mar 4, 2025

Waymo is now available exclusively on Uber in Austin

Verge•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

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