Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

102 comments102

Total Forecasters686

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

90.6

Community Peer Score

20.9

median 99.0%mean 97.0%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

Earthquake in Iran Fuels Speculation of an Iranian Nuclear Test

PJ Media•Oct 9, 2024

Has Iran Just Tested a Nuclear Bomb?

Lew Rockwell•Oct 10, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28