🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community?

Resolved :41.62
6
3
Total Forecasters27
Community Prediction1.62 (0.276 - 2.94)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<-9
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>9
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
0.2756
1.618
2.942
0.5%

What was the final result?4

Community Baseline Score
-1.9
Community Peer Score
39.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeineRyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2024 Leaderboard

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