🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?

Resolved :29.228.4
7
17
Total Forecasters52
Community Prediction28.4 (26.9 - 30)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<20
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>40
...
...
...
...
...
0.4%
26.94
28.42
29.98
0.2%

What was the final result?29.2

Community Baseline Score
57.4
Community Peer Score
11.8
Authors:
skmmcj
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Elections
Politics
2024 Leaderboard

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