Question

Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?

Resolved :No35%

96 comments96

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction35% (17.5% - 43.3%)

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50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

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Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

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Include Bots:Yes

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How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

75%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

24 disasters, $24 billion in damage: Assessing 2024's climate catastrophes

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Climate chaos accelerated in 2024 as we hit 1.5°C for the first time

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

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How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

75%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

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Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?

Make a Prediction

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Comments

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?