Question

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction2036-06-08 (2029-07-30 - 2051-01-22)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2029	2036	2051
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2029	—
median	2036	—
upper 75%	2051	—

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Jun 27, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

The One True Test of AI Intelligence

Lew Rockwell•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

50%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Jun 27, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

The One True Test of AI Intelligence

Lew Rockwell•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

50%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01