Question

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction2036-12

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2030-01

2036-12

2051-10

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Computer science

Artificial intelligence

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

37%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

68%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2051-04

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Computer science

Artificial intelligence

SoftBank to Invest $500M in OpenAI for the First Time—Is It Late to the Party?

Observer (NY)•Oct 1, 2024

With Newsom’s Veto, Big Tech Beats Democracy

Jacobin•Oct 1, 2024

Silicon Valley has a plan to save humanity: Just flip on the nuclear reactors

CNN•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

37%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

68%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2051-04

MetaculusM

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If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?